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Farecast, the site that intends to predict the directions of airfares for your specific travel dates, has expanded their beta site to include many more airports.

The horizon for predictions is limited to 3 months. If you’re looking at travel dates more than 3 months ahead, you won’t get any analysis, just fares.

It’s also still a bit buggy. I had a few searches come up with no flight results, or no prediction, even though they were in the range of “legal” dates.

Predicting airfares’ direction is tricky business, since fare wars are waged by humans, not machines. Plus, fuel prices depend on a number of geopolitical factors, which I suspect aren’t part of the Farecast algorithm.

I’m wary of predictions, but the fare trend is the key. (FareCompare offes a trendline, too.) If your fare is below that trendline, just buy. Don’t worry about the prediction. If it’s below the average, it’s a good fare.

Related:
- Farecast beta goes public, just in time for a reader review
- So how accurate is Farecast?
- The traveler’s crystal ball
- Market timing: More advice on when to buy cheap plane tickets
- The black art of repricing tickets

tags: travel | Farecast

A short write-up of around-the-world ticket options in the New York Times today, while generally good, left out some important options.

- Branch out. The article advises checking with the 3 big airline alliance websites (Star Alliance, OneWorld, and SkyTeam) to see flight options. That’s great, but don’t limit yourself to the alliances alone. Some airlines have side agreements outside their alliance that may be appealing, such as the Emirates/United round-the-world ticket.

- Talk to a travel agent. While many airlines can sell you the ticket, it’s often easier to deal with an agent for this kind of thing. Not every airline customer service rep knows the minutiae of round-the-world ticketing. I’d even suggest you talk to more than one travel agent, to compare pricing, routing, and heck, personality.

- Start in Sri Lanka. If you’re going around the world twice or more, consider buying the second (and third, etc.) ticket someplace like Colombo, Sri Lanka. I’m not kidding. You can buy a business class RTW ticket there for about the same price as a coach RTW ticket in the US or most of Europe, on the same airlines. The article mentions this, but it’s really worth driving home.

tags: travel | RTW | round the world tickets

Yesterday, the site Seeking Alpha posted this tip for getting the best price for airfares:

What’s the absolute best time to purchase a ticket directly from the airlines? Turns out it’s Wednesday from midnight to 1a.m. in the time zone of the airline’s “home base.”[…] Why? That’s when the computer systems of most airlines get rid of the reserved but unbooked lower fare reservations.

Several blogs — at least 36 of them as of this writing — picked up on this tip. The problem is it’s completely wrong. It’s pure, unadulterated bunk, a long-running myth of the airline industry.

I consulted with the good folks at FareCompare.com, who reaffirmed my view. The Wednesday midnight rule is a myth. Rick Seaney, CEO of FareCompare.com sets the record straight:

- Held reservations don’t all expire Wednesdays.

“Held inventory is released every day at midnight so Wednesday is nothing special. Agencies who use Sabre, Worldspan, Galileo and/or Amadeus [the major GDS’s — the global computer networks used for booking tickets] can hold DOMESTIC inventory (sold status SS) without ticketing up to 24 hours during the day, and the carriers at their choosing come in the evening at Midnight and release un-ticketed inventory. The hold for international inventory is normally longer than 24 hours but is at the discretion of the airlines. Some airline websites have a hold feature, but it acts the same way as an agency: the inventory is lost at midnight if not ticketed, and the itinerary is repriced at the current inventory for that flight at time of purchase. For the most part all airline sites use the same policy.”

- Most fares that are put on hold aren’t that cheap to begin with.

“It’s not the low fare inventory that opens up at midnight. Low fare inventory is almost always ticketed immediately. Un-ticketed inventory is normally high priced business inventory held by a corporate agency for business travelers who are on the fence about going, or by government workers who have a special ‘hold until travel’ feature for negotiated routes.”

- Midnight isn’t necessarily the best time for new fares, anyway.

“New fares (lower or higher) are distributed at 10:00am, 12:30pm, and 8pm EST and loaded about 2-6 hours later in the GDS and airline sites. Seat inventory is controlled by automated revenue management systems, which continuously monitor current sales and consult historical models to decide on whether to release the lowest price seat inventory. The 8pm domestic ATPCO [Airline Tariff Publishing Company – the clearinghouse (owned by the airlines) for raw air fare/rule distribution] fare feed (5pm weekends) is loaded into the GDS and airline sites between 12:15am and 1:30am, which has the changed fares. But there is no correlation to getting a good deal, just because some inventory might be freed up at midnight. It is just as likely to free up at 2pm when the yield management system decides sales are soft in a particular inventory price bucket for a particular flight.”

- SHOCKER: Some agencies will try to get a better price than the fare they sold you. You just may not find out.

“Large volume non-online agencies do have a practice of ticketing later at night and trying to re-price all un-ticketed items to see if any fares or inventory have changed on a particular flight (sometimes they pocket the difference, sometimes the customer gets the benefit).”

- This is not news.

“There is nothing special about this process. It has been this way for years.”

There you have it. Myth busted. It’s Wednesday night as I type, and though midnight is approaching, I’m not banking on any airfare deals tonight. Neither should you.

Big thanks to Rick Seaney for the insights.

UPDATE: SmarterTravel.com took on the same question today, and they suggest that Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday (especially Tuesday) are more likely to have lower fares. I don’t buy it. The explanation is purely anecdotal; I’ll go with the boys at FareCompare who track airfares obsessively, who say the low fares can come on any day.

Related:
- Flexible-date search alternatives for international destinations
- Where to find cheap last-minute or emergency tickets

Reader David S. writes:

Have you heard of the site airfarewatchdog.com? They list some very good fares. However I sometimes have a difficult time finding the fares that they list. What do you think about the site?

Indeed, I’m certainly familiar with George Hobica’s Airfarewatchdog. He and his team scour the internet for low fares and post regular updates, both listing the best fares in America, and the best fares for individual departure cities. It’s a great overview. His site has pointed to some good stuff, and I’ve linked to him before — like the $750 round trip business class fare on Maxjet back in March. He offers e-mail subscriptions, too, though the mailings are sometimes erratic.

Meaning no disrespect against Airfarewatchdog, but I find FareCompare’s alerts to be faster and more consistent. E-mails go out as soon as lowered fares hit the databases. If that’s too much information, you can get a good snapshot of fares from your city with the site’s Destination Deal Maps (effectively the same as Travelocity’s recently downgraded Dream Maps — except it functions both domestically and internationally.)

To see the Deal Maps, go to FareCompare.com and enter your departure city in the middle of the page.

To join the fare alert list, go to FareCompare.com, click on the Deal Maps or run a search for city pair, and then click on the “FareCompare AirFare Email Early Warning System” box in the upper left corner.

The downside of FareCompare is that it doesn’t cover Southwest or JetBlue, since those airlines don’t participate in the big global fare networks (GDS’s). So a human touch is necessary to test those fares.

It’s a case of machine vs. man. FareCompare’s automated system offers faster response than the more human search of Airfarewatchdog. But the ‘dog includes airlines that the machines can’t.

tags: travel | Airfarewatchdog | FareCompare

There’s escalation in the Discounted First Class War.

Yesterday’s post about Y-UP and Q-UP fares brought in a few e-mails. Including this one:

Have you seen that United now goes beyond Y-UP and Q-UP and now features M-UP and B-UP fares?

It’s true. Confirmed. Whoo.

Pulling up a list of fares (on Travelocity’s fare tool) between, say, Washington and Los Angeles on the arbitrary date of October 28, I see these “discounted” premium fares:

Delta USD 983.00+ F06C booking code F
American USD 1159.00+ YUPP7ZN booking code P
United USD 1159.00+ QUA7UPN booking code A
United USD 1159.00+ QUA7UP4Z booking code A
American USD 1533.00+ YUPPMZ booking code P
United USD 1533.00+ QUAUP4Z booking code Z
United USD 1533.00+ QUAUP booking code A
American USD 1933.00+ YUPMZ booking code A
United USD 2433.00+ MUAUP booking code P
United USD 2433.00+ MUAUP4D booking code D

Notice that the Delta fare that doesn’t play these -UP games is actually the cheapest of the discounted premium fares. Go figure. (FYI, the fares with booking code D or Z are business class fares on 3-class planes… hope you’re keeping score.) And none of these fares come close to the discounted economy class prices that most people look for. -UP fares shine when you’re traveling at the last minute and all fares are sky high.

This is getting silly. We have Yuppie and Quppie fares, and now Muppies and Buppies. It’s getting too hard to keep track of all these options. My brain is going to explode.

Flying in first class for the price of coach is a beloved subject with this blog’s readers. But reader Alan F. correctly points out via e-mail that I duplicated the Wall Street Journal’s mistake in my two earlier posts on the subject of Y-UP and Q-UP fares (here and here). I erroneously called these fares coach fares with an automatic upgrade to first. They’re not. They are first class fares, period.

The confusion arises because they have a fare code (e.g., “QUAUP”) that starts with an economy-fare letter, “Q.” But the booking code for these fares — the single-letter category the fares fall into — is actually a first-class code, such as “F” or “A.”

So who on earth, beside Alan F., cares?? Why would this matter? At least two important reasons:

1) Some travelers are reporting that they’re not getting seats in first on these fares. They get to the gate and are handed an economy boarding pass, with the comment that their upgrade didn’t clear. What upgrade? They bought a first-class ticket, so an economy boarding pass is a downgrade.

2) Miles, miles, miles. If you buy a first-class ticket, you earn more miles, both redeemable miles and elite-qualifying miles. Make sure you get what you paid for.

This business of the fare code vs. the booking code is silly. It confuses passengers and staff alike. I don’t know if it’s done this way by design or neglect. Or maybe there are travelers who like it this way. I could imagine a company’s accountants, whose job it is to enforce a “no first class travel” policy, not recognizing a Q-UP fare as a first class fare. Anyone?

tags: travel | upgrades | first class

The days of the 1-cent Ryanair fares may soon be over. And consumers will be better off.

If approved by 25 European governments and the EU parliament, the legislation proposed by the European Commission would force airlines to list the total price of a ticket up front. This means that all fees, fuel surcharges, taxes, etc., would need to be stated on websites and in newspaper advertising.

The legislation would also require that airlines charge European travelers the same fare, regardless of which country they call home. Sale fares could no longer be isolated to one country within the EU.

It’s about time. U.S. ticket sales are bad enough, with fares often advertised pre-tax, but the European airfare shell game takes the cake. Carriers like Ryanair falsely advertise ludicrously low base fares, which come with mandatory add-on fees that passengers may not even use — like the wheelchair charge that every passenger pays. The fuel surcharges on international flights are hardly any better. None of these fees are optional, and they go to the airline, not to any government. They’re really part of the fare, and should be treated as such. Period.

While many online travel agencies, and even some airlines, are working around this by giving the “total price” when you run a search, it’s still up to individual providers to decide whether they want to be honest with their customers or deceive them. The EC is right to be cracking down on this. I hope other governments follow suit.

See also:
- Senator slams surcharges
- Weakening airfare advertising regulation, redux
- U.S. regulators to weaken airfare advertisement rules?

tags: travel | false advertising | airfare

In the last week, BusinessWeek and the Associated Press have taken on the same task that this blog took on weeks ago: rating the travel aggregator sites, Kayak, Mobissimo, FareChase, SideStep, etc., for their usefulness in conducting airfare searches. (You think Anick Jesdanun of the Associated Press and Sarah Lacy of BusinessWeek read this site? Hi guys!)

Note that I went the next step and also reviewed aggregator hotel searches… Let’s see if they follow suit and do the same!

(snideness: off)

AP’s Jesdanun agrees with my assessment of Kayak as the superior airfare search, but BusinessWeek’s Lacy downplays Kayak and instead favors SideStep for its downloadable toolbar “big brother” feature. This is a reason NOT to like SideStep if you ask me. I just don’t trust these browse-along features to protect my privacy. Call me paranoid.

In aggregator news, Mobissimo has in recent weeks made some improvements, broadening the number of sites they search (and pitching the means by which they conduct their searches.) Their recently launched India-based site is a big move. But I still just don’t like their user interface, their comparative lack of information, or their lack of controls. It’s getting better, but it’s not there yet.

tags: travel | travel planning | metasearches | journalists stealing story ideas from bloggers | Kayak | Mobissimo | Farechase | Sidestep

(Updated August 6, 2006; original text is crossed out, corrections follow in text. Reason for update is here.)

Last week we discussed coach tickets that automatically upgrade actually book into first class (usually Q-UP or Y-UP fares; Z fares book into business class on three-class or international flights). (Updated August 6, 2006: Q-UP and Y-UP fares are first class fares, NOT economy fares with an upgrade. A minor distinction, but an important one in case your flight gets overbooked, or if a gate agent tries to tell you your “upgrade” was denied. See here.)

The folks at FareCompare have come up with two useful tools for finding discounted first class fares. First, they offer a Q-UP and Y-UP fare list for U.S. cities. This link will take you to the y-up (or equivalent) fares for Chicago; change the departure city at the top of the page.

Even better, they offer a handy guide (PDF) for booking Q-UP and Y-UP fares on the airlines’ websites. (Citing problems with the airlines’ homepages, they refer you to Expedia.com instead for USAirways and Delta.)

I’d add a caveat: Some of the discounted first class fares their methods find are nonrefundable first class. For example, a United QUAUPN fare is nonrefundable; a QUAUP fare can usually be refunded.) The fare without the N at the end might just cost a few dollars more (single digits) but it offers much more flexibility. You may need to pick up the phone to buy the refundable version.

(Updated August 6, 2006; original text is crossed out, corrections follow in text. Reason for update is here.)

Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal (republished here) advises travelers to look for discounted first class fares: Q-UP, Y-UP, and Z fares. Some of these are technically coach fares, with an automatic upgrade. Though these fares often look like a coach fare, based on the booking codes, they actually book into first (or business, on three-class planes). This is a subject we’ve addressed before, with regard to international travel.

A few observations:

Finding a coach-with-automatic-upgrade discounted first class fare is nice, but it’s not generally rockbottom cheap, so don’t plan on paying $225 for a first class ticket from New York to San Francisco. These tickets are cheaper than last-minute full-fare economy fare, and certainly cheaper than full-fare first class, so undoubtedly preferable, but not cheaper than long-term advance economy purchases.

For example: Chicago-Los Angeles and back, May 16-23 on United. A search for first class fares on united.com automatically yields an itinerary with fare basis code QUAUP. This is one of the fares the WSJ is talking about. The price? $1418.59 round trip. The cheapest upgradable coach fare? $280.60. Sure, that doesn’t mean that the upgrade is guaranteed, but that’s still a big spread between “discounted” first and coach.

The lesson: See if you can upgrade a cheaper fare before you buy one of these fares. They may be less than full-fare first, but if you have upgrades, and the spots are available, use ‘em on a cheap fare. Call your airline first to check upgrade availability.

The article is also a bit glib on how to find these fares. They’re not available for every route, for every date, or every airline. Searching for first class tickets should bring them up, if they’re available. Otherwise, try using this tool from Travelocity, which lists all available fare classes for selected airlines on your chosen date. You’ll see the list of fares, ranked by price. Some of them may read Q***UP or Q***UPN, for example. These are your auto-upgrade discounted first class fares. Once you’ve found the fare you want, (try to) book wherever you like.

Finally, not all Q-UPs, etc. are created equal, and these fares are more restricted than full-fare first (”F” fares). F or A fares are most likely refundable; Q-UPs, etc., may not be. For example, on United, if there is an “N” at the end of the fare basis code, it’s not refundable. Read the rules before you buy.

A number of websites have cropped up in recent years, offering multi-site searches for airfare, hotels, and rental cars. I don’t mean the online travel agencies like Expedia or Orbitz. Rather, I’m referring to the sites which allow you to search availability across online agencies, consolidators, and the providers themselves. These sites, called aggregators, collect a few dollars for every sale that results from their referral, at no additional cost to the person doing the searching.

The great benefit of these sites is that you get greater transparency of fares. However, not all aggregators are created equal. I put a few to the test.

For the time being, I limited my comparison to airfare searches. I looked for accuracy (did the quoted price match the price actually offered at the provider’s page?), depth of information (does the site give the booking class, cancellation policies, etc.?), and control (can you sort searches easily, by provider, by price, by distance, etc.?)

For airfare, I compared Kayak, Farechase, Mobissimo, Bezurk, Farecompare, Sidestep, and Pricegrabber. (Since I’m based in the United States, these results may be biased toward North American searches.)

The result: Kayak came out on top, with the lowest prices, the most control over the output, and most information about both airlines and sellers. Sidestep comes close. Farecompare gets an honorable mention for its price-driven approach. All sites accurately reported fares — there were no surprises when clicking through to the target site. However, no single aggregator actually found every flight option or every major travel site.

Kayak
If you know your dates of travel, Kayak offers the most powerful site, in my opinion. It covers a range of websites, including a number of consolidators. The fare results can be sorted by airline, by time, by price, by airports (it searches alternate airports automatically), and by stops. One of the biggest benefits is the ability to see the precise fare booking code, by clicking “details.” (This is great if you’re looking for a cheap but upgradable fare, for example.) A downside to Kayak is that they seem to exclude the big three online agencies — Travelocity, Expedia, and Orbitz don’t seem to come up in searches. On the plus side, JetBlue, who (like Southwest) doesn’t show up in the big three’s searches, comes up for comparison on Kayak. Negative is that they don’t seem to grab every possible routing from every airline (a common complaint for all aggregators). Kayak is 95% there, but not quite 100%.

SideStep
Sidestep is a very close runner-up to Kayak on the pure-airfare search. It covers a similar range of sites, plus includes Orbitz in the search. It has one interesting benefit: offering air and hotel package searches across multiple sites. Note that Sidestep is perhaps best known for its downloadable toolbar, which “watches” where you browse, and offers fare alternatives. I am not a fan of this over-the-shoulder co-browsing, but you don’t have to use their toolbar in order to run a search.

Farechase
Farechase, owned by Yahoo, copies much of Kayak’s template, but searches a slightly different universe of sites, including both Orbitz and Cheaptickets. The total number of sites searched is smaller, but doesn’t overlap entirely with Kayak or Sidestep. One downside: the flight details do not include the booking class/fare code. Presumably you need to go through the process of a complete booking in order to see that info.

Mobissimo
Like Farechase, Mobissimo DOES include some of the online agencies: Orbitz, CheapTickets, and Opodo, for example. However, it offers less flexibility in sorting the data than Farechase, and it doesn’t give much in the way of flight details. While the fares it finds are comparable to Farechase, the presentation is previous-generation.

Pricegrabber
Update: PriceGrabber has thrown in the towel, shutting down their travel search feature. The rest of their site is still up and running. This review stays up, though the travel service is defunct.
Pricegrabber is a comparison shopping site, and their travel search is just one among many. The search engine again follows the Kayak template, but it doesn’t tell you up front which sites it has searched. Results can be sorted by price, airline, time ranges, and, interestingly, ontime statistics. But you can’t see the flights’ booking class here either, the range of alternate airports is limited, and you don’t even know who the seller is until you choose the flight. They do work with Orbitz, and perhaps others, but they need to provide more information.

Bezurk
This is an Asia-based site that taps into a completely different pool of providers. It copies the Kayak model, again. However, because the search is based on Asian companies, it may be difficult to find a fare you can actually purchase if your travels don’t touch Asia. Nonetheless, for international travel, check it out.

Farecompare
This recently unveiled site is notable for its price-driven approach. Instead of entering cities/dates and comparing options thereafter, Farecompare asks for cities only, and drills down on the basis of price. Much like Travelocity’s Dream Maps or Search by Price, you may end up with a great price… on dates you can’t use. However, the site is interesting for the sheer volume of information it provides, and it offers historical data tracking the city pair’s fare trend over time.

What if you just care about price, without regard to anything else? Who has the best price? I did two searches, one for Chicago to Los Angeles, one for San Francisco to Sydney. The city pairs made no difference: In both cases, Kayak, SideStep, and Mobissimo found the identical lowest prices. Farechase’s “lowest price” was more than the others.

Aggregators are a great tool, but even then, you may want to run one or two of them, to see if they differ. Maybe we need an aggregator of aggregators (perhaps metakayak.com?) to truly get thorough searches.

In two weeks, I’ll test the aggregators’ searches for hotels, which offer an entirely different set of challenges. If there are any sites that you believe I have missed, or if you think my assessment is way off base, let me know by leaving a comment or using the contact link at the top right of the page.

Update (April 24, 2006): One reader wrote, reminding me of ITA Software’s excellent fare search tool. ITA powers Orbitz.com for airfare searches, though Orbitz’s search engine is a dumbed-down version with far fewer features. The genius of ITA is that it is incredibly powerful, if you know how to phrase your searches. However, it’s not a booking site, just an informative flight search, so even if you find a great fare, you have to find and book it elsewhere. Since ITA doesn’t actually get you to a booking (and, as the aggregators demonstrate, fares aren’t always available everywhere), I didn’t originally include them in the earlier discussion.

Update (April 28, 2006): Reader Todd points out that I forgot to include Qixo.com in my review. He’s right. Ahem:

Qixo.com
Qixo came up short. It offered less information (fare booking classes, provider, etc.) and had the highest price for identical searches. I ran fresh searches for new dates, with the same city pairs. Once again, Kayak had the lowest fare with the most choices and depth of information. Sidestep and Farechase had the same prices, with less info. Pricegrabber was a few dollars more expensive. Bezurk found nothing at all for North American itineraries. And Qixo? $120 more than the others. When the site even worked. Qixo came in last.

Business 2.0’s profile of Ryanair offers this prediction: By 2010, half its customers would fly for free.

Free? FREE??? Nothing on Ryanair is free. Break out the legalese: If, by “free,” you mean “no base airfare,” then yes, it may indeed be possible for travelers to embark on a plane without providing the airline with upfront revenue. Already, the carrier sells thousands of tickets for free, or at ridiculously low prices like 89 pence. The real cost to the traveler is much higher, once the taxes and fees are added in.

It’s enough to drive Chuck Schumer bonkers. Take a flight from London to Hamburg, April 21 to 22. First off, the flight leaves London’s Stansted Airport for Lübeck airport — not Hamburg itself. Check the map, and the taxi rates, before you buy. Plus, the ticket is not free, once fees/taxes are included. These raise the cost of the ticket from free to £27 (or US$47 at the time of this writing). Still really, really cheap. But not free.

But putting this legal mumbo jumbo aside, Ryanair will make sure your “free” ticket isn’t free with all their add-ons. Plus, they take “no frills” to the absurd. There are no windowshades. No seatback pockets. They print the safety information on the back of the seat, so there’s no card. Tighter pitch than any North American carrier. These guys make Southwest look like Singapore Airlines.

The Irish discount carrier charges money for everything. Any checked luggage? A fee. Bags weigh more than 20kg? Another fee, based on weight. Carry-ons must be below 10kg, or there’s a fee. Inflight coffee or Coca-Cola? A fee. There are no seat assignments, so they can’t charge you for that.

But my favorite forthcoming revenue stream for the airline: inflight gambling, starting in 2007. (”Ryanair: The loosest slots in the sky!”)

Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary says he wants the airline to be known as “the Wal-Mart of flying.” (Does that make Southwest the Target of flying?) Indeed, the company is wildly successful, just like Wal-Mart. But even Wal-Mart doesn’t charge for parking, plastic bags at checkout, use of shopping carts, or public toilets.

(image)
tags: travel | air travel | Ryanair | inflight gambling