So air travel to the United States has gotten exponentially worse in the past few days. It’s not news to anyone with regular access to the internet or a TV that Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab tried to blow up a Delta (Northwest, technically) flight from Amsterdam to Detroit. Worse than the fact that there remain people who insist on trying to kill innocent civilians, the TSA has taken a bad situation and made it worse.
As you’re likely well-aware, the TSA has imposed strict new rules on air travel from abroad to the U.S. At-gate pat-downs of passengers and reinspection of their carry-on luggage will slow things down, but is no surprise. But the in-flight restrictions — detailed in security directive 1544-09-06 — are simply asinine, and take the notion of “security theater” to new heights.
During flight, the aircraft operator must ensure that the following procedures are followed:
1. Passengers must remain in seats beginning 1 hour prior to arrival at destination.
2. Passenger access to carry-on baggage is prohibited beginning 1 hour prior to arrival at destination.
3. Disable aircraft-integrated passenger communications systems and services (phone, internet access services, live television programming, global positioning systems) prior to boarding and during all phases of flight.
4. While over U.S. airspace, flight crew may not make any announcement to passengers concerning flight path or position over cities or landmarks.
5. Passengers may not have any blankets, pillows, or personal belongings on the lap beginning 1 hour prior to arrival at destination.
Bruce Schneier has the winning quip: “I wish that, just once, some terrorist would try something that you can only foil by upgrading the passengers to first class and giving them free drinks.”
The TSA’s new rules confirm several points, which were already well-known to longtime watchers:
- TSA is always fighting the last war.
Every time someone tries to blow up a plane or otherwise harm travelers, the TSA jumps into action to close the loophole that that would-be terrorist was hoping to exploit. The bad guys will just change their tactics and find a new way to do it. It’s like we’re the 2009 equivalent of the French military, building a Maginot Line in response to the last attack. First, it was the box-cutters. Then, shoes. Then liquids. Now it’s explosives concealed under a blanket? The next attacker (and yes, sadly, there will be a next attempt at some point, I’m sure) just avoids the past prohibitions and attacks from another angle. - TSA is focused on placing limits on things that are tangential to an actual attack.
Abdulmutallab had attempted to blow things up in the last hour of the flight, so TSA’s response is to ban any activity during the last hour. It’s as time were the weapon, rather than the bomb. The ban on getting up in the last hour of the flight is similarly misguided. The ban is so huge, the umbrella so wide, that it fails to distinguish between activity necessary for an attack and activity coincidental to an attack. It’s as one were to state that the attacker wore pants, so no pants should be permitted. - TSA assumes that threats will always be from abroad.
The new restrictions are only applicable to international flights headed to the United States. So domestic travel is spared further restrictions, which is a relief, but international travelers are subject to dumb rules. If these rules were truly effective, and not just for show, they would be in effect for all travel, foreign and domestic. - TSA assumes that terrorists lack deductive reasoning.
The new rules specify that the inflight entertainment system’s live-updating map cannot be visible, and that the crew is prohibited from announcing the location of the plane en route. But if the “strict” rules kick in 60 minutes before estimated landing time, then any would-be terrorist with a modicum of logic would know that he’s close to his destination once the crew starts alerting passengers that they can no longer get up. - TSA assumes that by doing anything — no matter how stupid — it makes Americans feel safer.
“The boss is coming, look busy!” For some time, TSA has justified some of its rules (like the nonsense regarding liquids) by hiding behind a sham of national security, even when procedures don’t stand up to logic in the light of day. And it’s all done in the name of safety and security. But hopefully people are wising up. The logical fallacies in the current security directive are plain for all to see. If the public protests, then and only then will TSA be held to account. If the public argues that it doesn’t feel safer because of these rules, then we might get somewhere.
So what’s next?
There has already been some pushback against these rules, and there are reports that some of these bans are already being diluted, with discretion being granted to the pilots to decide whether or not to turn off the inflight entertainment system, for example. But most of the restrictions aren’t negotiable. (Though they do apparently expire at 2am GMT on December 30, 2009, aka 8pm EST on December 29. Go figure.)
Here are a few preliminary thoughts on what this incident, and the TSA’s reaction, hath wrought:
- Airlines will have to recalibrate their connection times for flights headed to the US.
The 35-minute connection time in Munich that Lufthansa was offering me on an Istanbul-Munich-Charlotte itinerary last week? That should no longer be for sale. There’s no way you can handle at-gate searches and patdowns with that little time. Two hour connections should be considered a bare minimum. - Inflight wifi rollouts on trans-continental routes may be stymied.
If TSA assumes that terrorists will use information from the inflight Airshow map to plot their moment of attack, then imagine how they view internet access? There will be pushback, but expect TSA to set up roadblocks. - Pack even lighter.
Checked baggage fees are going to be harder to avoid. If you’re limited to one carry-on item, and you’ve been used to taking one rollaboard and a small bag with electronics, snacks, etc., then you’re going to have to pack even lighter, and/or get used to checking the bags. - Dress warmer.
If you’re a person who gets cold easily, wear layers during your flight. Since pillows and blankets are now threats to security, but sweaters and scarves are still okay, plan on bundling up. - A better puffer machine should be on the drawing board.
Since the would-be bomber might have been caught if he had passed through a “puffer” machine — a security screening machine that sent jets of air at you, in order to detect explosive residue — these machines might make a comeback. They weren’t very effective when tested, in large part because of the many false positives. But they might come back, if the technology improves. - Backscatter x-ray machines will become more widespread, despite privacy objections.
The NYT starts us on this path:To date, only 40 of these machines have been installed at 19 airports across the United States — meaning only a tiny fraction of passengers pass through them. Amsterdam’s airport has 15 of these machines — more than just about any airport in the world — but an official there said Sunday that they were prohibited from using them on passengers bound for the United States, for a reason she did not explain.
I’m going to let that last item go … but this incident will likely push forward the rollout of backscatter.
- International travel to the United States will decrease.
This is a no-brainer, but it deserves mention: Air travel was bad enough. International travel to the United States was bad enough. And now, it’s worse. The US should expect a decline in tourist dollars. And as long as the citizenry fails to object to their elected officials about dumb, arbitrary, do-nothing rules, then this decline is deserved.
If you’ve flown internationally over the last few days, you’re invited to post your tales from the front in the comments.
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December 28th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
Up your odds for the Mile High Club membership: travel naked!!! BTW, it’s all a meme for body scanner sales and attacks on Yemen. Where’s Tiger?
December 28th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
So, to whom do you suggest we protest, other than our duly elected representatives? Thanks
December 28th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
@Bill,
Well, for starters, a letter to your member of the House and Senate would be in order. Find (and write to) the House representative here, and find your senators here.
Then, consider writing to members of relevant committees in both the House and Senate. I’m thinking that two committees in each house are of note. In the Senate, there’s the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation and the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. In the House, the Committee on Homeland Security and the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure.
Beyond that, I don’t really know. The TSA is without an actual administrator right now, as South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint has blocked consideration of President Obama’s nominee. I suppose you could write to Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano.
Other than that, I’m not sure. Write, call, whatever works. Raise some hell.
December 28th, 2009 at 10:25 pm
Does this mean no reading material or anything in your possession during the last hour of flight?
December 28th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
Apart from writing to your elected official there is one very powerful option left: vote with your wallet and don’t fly!
Once citizens stop flying in even greater numbers the airlines will raise hell to get these rules revised. Money is still our most powerful weapon in the US.
December 28th, 2009 at 11:39 pm
No inflight nav system 1 hour prior to touchdown? I find this to be total BS as anyone with a portal GPS (most are built into phones now) can turn it on around half hour before landing (pending they can get a signal) and find out where they are. And it’s not like the flight attendants are going to be waking the aisles until the plane lands! This article is well stated, TSA is a reactive body rather than proactive. Talk about more than ever taking the fun out of flying, now we will be lucky to even catch that flight with the ever-so-long wait times for screening.
I am a heavy international traveler and a member of the CBP’s Global Entry Program and this is truly a great way for any medium to heavy world traveller to cut down the time it takes to enter back into the country [USA] (clearing Customs and Immigration) and it’s only $100 for 5 years. It consists of a background check and interview. I feel that this program should be extended to travelers checking in at the airport (similar to the old “Clear” program for those of you that may recall it before it went under). The only way of expediting checkin currently is to fly on a business or first class ticket (aka premium lines). While this line can also sometimes be long during peak travel periods, it is by far less time consuming and less frustrating that the “regular line”. I usually travel business class however on the rare occasions that I am in the regular line, there is a noticeable difference. That line primarily consists of children, elderly folks casual vacationers and those with limited travel experience. They don’t usually understand the concept of removing your shoes and jackets, placing electronics in the bin, taking laptop out of bag, etc and thus I end up stuck behind these folks. Again, not angry at them per se, it’s just that as a frequent business traveler, you know what to do and when you have those that impede your momentum, it can be irritating.
Nonetheless, I am about to be en route from NRT – IAD, and will report back if my travel experience gets repressed even more so now with the “new rules”.
December 28th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
Anyone with a real sense of geography and the ability to read a map doesn’t need a GPS device. You can sit on a plane and look out the window and be able to determine where you are without a navigational system or GPS. You think a terrorist isn’t able to do this already? Find a peculiar highway, a large or odd body of water, and/or city, and you’ve got the right kind of landmarks to determine a location without help from the airline. I bet it hasn’t occurred to TSA to ban road maps from the cabin. You’re right, they’re grasping at straws. They need to quit all this reactionary policy-making and figure out how to deal with terrorists for real.
December 29th, 2009 at 1:02 am
Returned yesterday from Europe on UA. No changes at the airport in FRA — same old questions (who packed your bags, where were they since then, …). The gate agent confiscated my wife’s rollaboard for gate-checking, claiming only one item allowed. And that was right after letting me through with an identical set of rollaboard+laptop backpack. Go figure.
During flight, no Ch9 and no map channel. Second meal service was an hour earlier than usual because of the 60 minute “ConAir” phase. During that time, all carry on items had to be in the overhead bins, and blankets/pillows were confiscated. No one cared that I was reading a newspaper, thus covering up my lap.
December 29th, 2009 at 1:47 am
Interesting article on the odds of airborne terror:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/12/odds-of-airborne-terror.html
December 29th, 2009 at 1:52 am
[...] [...]
December 29th, 2009 at 10:57 am
Thanks Mark for once again the best summary of the aftermath of the terror attempt!
mp/m
December 29th, 2009 at 11:19 am
I flew from San Francisco (SFO) to London (LHR) yesterday and actually security at SFO didn’t seem all that different to usual–had to take shoes off, but that seems to happen about half the time anyway. There was no inflight map, and no landmarks were announced, although the pilot did announce the route shortly after takeoff. We weren’t allowed blankets or pillows on laps while landing. (And flight attendant said that this rule would be taken “very seriously” or similar.)
December 29th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
@Mike Nash
The “final hour” rules have been revised and are now at captain’s discretion. Which means it’s a crapshoot. See here.
@BJW
Indeed, voting with your feet (and wallet) is powerful. The most powerful voting will be by those who choose not to fly to (or through) the United States. For example, if I were flying from Auckland to London, you couldn’t pay me to fly via LAX. I’d do what I could to avoid touching down in the US.
@greg
Thanks, I looked into this a while back, but it was not yet very widespread, so thanks for pointing it my way again. The program overview is here. It requires a “rigorous background check,” which I’d like to hear more about. Global Entry has expanded to a number of airports since I last looked: BOS, ORD, DFW, DTW, FLL, IAH, ATL, HNL, JFK, LAS, LAX, MIA, EWR, MCO, PHL, SFO, SJU, SFB, SEA, and IAD. (SFB? Orlando-Sanford? And not CLT? Really?!)
@Oliver and @Michael Stilwell
Thanks for the trip reports. Michael, it will be interesting to hear what happens on the return. The stricter procedures are only in place for flights headed to the US, not leaving the US or within the US. Go figure.
@Antonio
Thanks for the link. Indeed, the odds remain very slim. It’s a worthwhile read. The takeaway: “the odds of being on given departure which is the subject of a terrorist incident have been 1 in 10,408,947 over the past decade. By contrast, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are about 1 in 500,000. This means that you could board 20 flights per year and still be less likely to be the subject of an attempted terrorist attack than to be struck by lightning.”
@Mike Maddaloni
Thanks as always for your kind words.
December 30th, 2009 at 11:09 am
[...] A guy tries to blow up a plane and all I get is these dumb new rules… what stinks, and what’s ne… - Upgrade Travel Better Best article I’ve seen on the subject. [...]
December 30th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
@Mark Actually, that was the “return” trip! The captain’s excuse for the plane’s late arrival in SFO was the new security procedures being put in place in London, so it’s quite likely that flights to the USA are getting greater scrutiny.
December 30th, 2009 at 3:52 pm
I’m all for writing letters and intend to do so on this subject. However, while its easy to rail against the dumbest of the rules, it’s unclear to me what we should be suggesting the TSA do instead. That is, what reasonable proposals has the TSA yet to implement? Someone wiser than me must have a manifesto for the TSA that I could support.
December 30th, 2009 at 11:08 pm
Twitter Comment
@mayf Yeah, it is pretty ridiculous. You’ll like this take on it: [link to post]
– Posted using Chat Catcher
December 30th, 2009 at 11:33 pm
Twitter Comment
Happy #traveltuesday (or unhappy as the case may be with new TSA regs) Great points in this article! [link to post]
– Posted using Chat Catcher
January 1st, 2010 at 7:38 pm
Brian, my answer is “nothing.” Absent better non-intrusive systems, there is only so much airport security can do. For example, even with backscatter x-rays, a terrorist would still be able to get through security with a keistered bomb. 3 terrorists with 3 butt-bombs similar to that used recently in Saudi Arabia might be able to assemble something big enough to do some damage. So, unless you think TSA should start instituting cavity searches, there is always a risk.
The better solution is always on the intelligence side. Rather than trying to catch an unknown terrorist in the act, find out who they are beforehand. (That means more money for the CIA, not the TSA.)
April 5th, 2010 at 8:14 pm
[...] – Upgrades and Downgrades: New security rules, airport scanners, and lousy hotel website editing – A guy tries to blow up a plane and all I get is these dumb new rules… what stinks, and what’s ne… Categorized in: airport security No CommentsSHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: "Airport security gets [...]