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A recent article on fuel surcharges offers a hypothetical scenario of what consumers might expect in coming months or years:

“If fuel continues at this level, you may have a situation where an airline prices a ticket absent fuel,” said Terry Trippler of TripplerTravel. “Other than that they really don’t have a lot of options (to offset higher fuel costs).”

Much recent innovation in pricing in the travel industry (not just at airlines) has centered on the concept of “a la carte” buying. Pay only for what your use, not for a package of all the services available. So unbundling the cost of fuel isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Cruise lines and hotels have already done something like this, requiring a fuel surcharge that wasn’t included up front at the time of reservation. Travelers were shocked with a bill at the time of check-in. Shady? Yes.

But if fuel wasn’t a surcharge, and was simply a charge that everyone paid in full at the time of check-in, it might be less offensive to multitudes of travelers.

So what might this look like? You’d buy a ticket that covers the privilege of getting onboard, much like you pay a fee for renting a car. Your ticket would reflect your class of service, and any “amenities” you chose (food, baggage, early boarding, legroom… whatever) but the cost of the fuel wouldn’t be included up front. You might pay for the fuel at the time of check-in, or the carrier might give you the option of pre-paying (hedging?) and locking in a rate.

By charging the passengers for fuel on the day of travel, the airline would avoid the fluctuations of the oil market almost entirely. Fuel hedging strategies would be moot. Airlines that did this could sell seats without worrying about the price of Jet-A kerosene. And in a sense, this is logical: Hertz and Avis aren’t really affected by changes in oil prices, so why not Continental and jetBlue?

Of course, this would be awful for consumers, whose ability to predict the actual cost of travel would be flushed down the toilet. Budgeting would be harder. Travel expenses would be much more fluid, and the net effect on prices would likely be upward. And upward by a bit, since the fuel bill on a 7000-mile trip can change substantially with small shifts in the price of oil. “Low fares” would be a thing of the past, unless the airlines started “free fuel” promotions.

The saving grace for consumers is that it would take some cartel-like coordination to see all the major airlines start treating fuel this way. If it’s a single major airline that’s the first mover, there is bound to be a strong negative reaction in the media. But as the article cited above notes, it wouldn’t be the first time someone tried this:

If airlines do unbundle fuel costs from ticket prices, it would not be the first time. During the energy crisis of the late 1970s, charter airlines had separate fuel charges that were set just before takeoff.

Yesterday, it was charter airlines. Today, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Skybus or Spirit try something like this, since they’re already nickel-and-diming their customers and they’re known for doing anything to make a buck.

But either way, look out. Unbundled fuel could be coming your way, and you shouldn’t be happy.

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