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Reader Anton writes:

Is there any difference (in your opinion) in per-mile value depending upon a) alliance (Star vs OneWorld vs Skyteam) or b) individual airline?

E.g. what is better 100,000 Delta miles, 100,000 United miles or
100,000 Continental miles (for simplicity, let’s assume you are
non-elite in all of those and that the above miles are all you have in
each program)

Good question, Anton. Yes, I think there is a difference in value between programs, but it’s not easy to quantify. Prepare to geek out!

Redemption rates
Short answer: Yes, there’s a difference. Different airlines charge different amounts for similar tickets. But one airline may cost more for one route, and less for another, especially on international routes and in premium classes. For example:

• Flying from North America to Europe in economy class costs 50,000 miles for a typical coach ticket on American, United, Delta, and Continental, to name a few. If you’re a resident of Europe, Lufthansa charges 60,000 miles for the same itinerary. Bizarrely, they charge Americans only 50,000.
• Business class for the same US-Europe itinerary is 90,000 miles on most airlines, but for a few short weeks, United still only charges 80,000. (United is raising the price to 90,000 on October 16, so book quickly if you want the lower rate. See here for details.) But Northwest charges a full 100,000 for the same ticket. Europe is no value on NWA.
• Business class from the US to Australia with United miles (post October 16): 110,000 miles. With American miles: 125,000 miles.
• Chicago to New York area airports on American: 15,000 miles (limited time short-hop rate). Continental: 20,000 miles. Everyone else who flies nonstop (United, Delta): 25,000. On a percentage basis, that’s a big difference.

So, some airlines have “bargains” for certain awards, making those miles worth more than others for those awards. And if you fly those routes, you get more value for your miles.

But… it would be nearly impossible to come up with a one-size-fits-all formula that accurately reflects the differences between programs. Why?

Besides redemption rates, I’d suggest that there are (at least) three other variables that affect comparisons between programs: 1) accrual ease, 2) route network, and 3) redemption ability (award supply).

Accrual ease
If you’re looking to choose a program in which to accrue miles, mileage-earning opportunities matter. You want to be able to earn points easily. JetBlue’s program lets you earn miles in one of two ways: flying JetBlue, or by using their credit card. Not a lot of options there.

At the same time, you could make an argument that excessive accrual opportunities are bad for the program in the long run. Miles function like a currency. If airlines increase the number of miles in “circulation” too much, without award supply moving up similarly, then you’ll have more miles chasing fewer awards. This is what’s happening now, actually: People have the points, but can’t get the ticket they want. The imbalance creates inflationary pressure, meaning that airlines will want to raise the “price” of their award tickets to even out supply and demand.

But in your example, Anton, you have 100,000 miles in the program of your choice, and you’re looking to cash things in right now. So, despite mileage accrual’s effects on your experience with a program, let’s put accrual aside.

Route Networks
Where you fly matters, both for accrual and redemption. If your miles don’t get you where you want to go, then who cares? And this throws a wrench into any efforts to create a formula. One program may work great for one person, but not for another.

Let’s say you want to fly regularly from Los Angeles to a city that’s not a huge hub. Like, say… Tegucigalpa, Honduras! In such a case, you’re probably better off joining a program with an airline in the oneworld (e.g., American) or SkyTeam (e.g., Continental, Delta, Northwest) alliances, and not Star Alliance (e.g., United, US Airways). Star Alliance doesn’t fly to Honduras (though United has a separate side partnership with Central American carrier TACA).

Even domestically, route networks vary. You can’t visit North Dakota with Southwest Airlines Rapid Rewards, for example.

For what it’s worth:

• Star Alliance airlines fly to 842 destinations
• oneworld covers “over 600″
• Skyteam claims 728 airports.

Redemption ability/Award availability
You can’t buy anything if there’s nothing on the store’s shelves. But it’s really hard to accurately gauge just how easy it is to grab award seats. And airlines aren’t talking. They’ll tell you how many tickets were redeemed with miles, but how many tries did it take? Was it the first choice? How far in advance were reservations made?

InsideFlyer tried to put airlines to the test, but their methodology isn’t foolproof. So we’re stuck with anecdotal evidence: Some airlines are notoriously difficult for cashing in miles (Continental) while others have a better reputation (American, Southwest).

So whose miles are worth the most? Sorry to waffle, but it really depends on you…

(image: Alex Segre)