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So water is still no-go, but some degree of stability is settling in on the rules and regulations surrounding airport security. I’m officially tired of this whole story. Ideally, I’d like this to be my last post on the subject, though, like the dozens of extras in a George A. Romero film, the issue keeps rising up and coming back.

Here are some predictions for the travel marketplace, mixed in with some things I’d like to see instead:

- I predict airlines will soon start selling bottled water on board. $3 for 20oz. is my guess. Charging more is obnoxious. Heck, $3 is obnoxious, but your parched throat demands satisfaction. (Exact change is appreciated, as always.) What I’d rather see: Airlines putting small bottles of water on every seat, put there right before boarding. That would be a welcome service. If the catering companies can securely stock the aircraft’s carts, they can bring a few cases of 12oz. bottles of water on board.

- Longer-term, I expect airport concessions will be legalized for on-board use again. I don’t see the jetway searches for liquids bought in the concourse (”the war on Starbucks”) lasting more than a few months.

- Duty free shop owners are hating life right now. Booze sales are nil. Prediction: There will be a push to treat duty free goods like aircraft catering, which is presumably screened or at least deemed “secure.” The European supermarket-style buy-and-go model of duty free will give way to the American-style jetway delivery, at best. I’m sure there are alternatives, but they’re unlikely. Stowing the booze in the cargo hold?

- Airlines will likely start bringing back the excess baggage fees, which they haven’t been enforcing in the last few days. By now you’ve been warned about baggage limits, so the honeymoon is over. Pay up.

- With more checked luggage (I’ve heard 30-40% more than before), airports may need more skycaps, and airlines may need more ground workers to move the luggage off the plane and to the carousels. But just because they’re needed, doesn’t mean they’ll be hired. Don’t send in your resumé just yet. And expect slow luggage arrivals.

- Luggage shipment services will get a boost. Companies like LuggageFree will pick up your bags and ship them to your destination. I’m sure FedEx and UPS stores will perform similar services. This is still very expensive, and not appropriate for every trip, but some people will want to avoid the hassle of carrying their suitcases. (Hint: don’t ship ALL of your things, in case there’s a screw-up.)

- More hotels will follow Omni’s early lead in offering complimentary personal care items. Chains lower on the scale could start selling small or trial sized products. Smart cosmetics companies will offer free samples in upscale hotels.

- Those amenity kits you get on long international flights, usually just in premium classes, could be hot commodities onboard. Airlines may start selling them in coach. Lotion, toothpaste, etc.? $5? Alternatively, it’s another marketing opportunity for the lotion-makers. Free samples are always nice.

- While the US never banned laptops on board, the UK did. It’s inevitable that, at some point, there will be another flurry of security changes, and another ban (temp or perm) on electronics. When that happens, refer to this list of tips on backing up and packing your laptop. I’m still not sure I’d be too relaxed, knowing my laptop was in a suitcase in the cargo hold. I imagine that Panasonic Toughbook sales saw a bump this week. If When there is ever another ban, sales will skyrocket.

- If laptops and other electronics had remained prohibited, ultra-long-haul air travel to/from the UK would have been intolerable. The idea of being in a tube for 18 hours or so is not at all appealing to me to begin with. I love planes, but I get antsy already at 9 hours. Being there without toys tools for greater inflight productivity? Unimaginable.

- More checked luggage unfortunately means more opportunity for theft. Here in Chicago someone has been stealing guns from checked luggage, where they were legally being transported. Terrific. Expect a boost in sales of TSA approved locks. This means that the TSA has a master key to open the lock. Which keeps everyone out, except the unscrupulous TSA agent. (Though stealing from a suitcase with TSA locks would certainly draw suspicion toward those very agents…)

- People are getting to the airport earlier. If you get lucky and the security line isn’t that long, that means a long wait in the terminal. Expect more people to join airport lounges. (See here for the guide to your lounge membership options.)

- Smaller airports near big cities might benefit from passengers hoping to avoid long security lines. The reports all mention the wait times at the big hub airports. If the fare is comparable, expect passengers to favor smaller airports (e.g., Providence instead of Boston).

- Most people will not stop flying. No one I know has cancelled a flight, or even postponed one. No one I know is talking about avoiding travel in the future. Granted, this is purely anecdotal, but I don’t see a trend.

- Finally, despite people continuing to fly, the rhetoric of fear will continue. The London threat — foiled thanks to a tip received from someone within the alleged terrorists’ community — has allowed politicians across the globe to bloviate on the importance for security, but despite a ban on beverages and salves, little has really changed. For some reason, we are generally willing to accept some risks involved with living in society — knowing that not every resident is altruistic — except when we fly. Our trains, mass transit, and even airport people-movers carry large groups of people and their goods, all without the limitations on our personal freedom that we have come to tolerate in the confines of an airport terminal. We will never be perfectly safe. Anywhere. We need to come to terms with risk, not waver between fear and a delusional sense of comfort. Theatrical exercises in security don’t help matters in the long run, especially when carried out arbitrarily and inconsistently. If we expect complete safety, we will be disappointed again and again.

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tags: travel | airport security