Yesterday, the site Seeking Alpha posted this tip for getting the best price for airfares:
What’s the absolute best time to purchase a ticket directly from the airlines? Turns out it’s Wednesday from midnight to 1a.m. in the time zone of the airline’s “home base.”[...] Why? That’s when the computer systems of most airlines get rid of the reserved but unbooked lower fare reservations.
Several blogs — at least 36 of them as of this writing — picked up on this tip. The problem is it’s completely wrong. It’s pure, unadulterated bunk, a long-running myth of the airline industry.
I consulted with the good folks at FareCompare.com, who reaffirmed my view. The Wednesday midnight rule is a myth. Rick Seaney, CEO of FareCompare.com sets the record straight:
- Held reservations don’t all expire Wednesdays.
“Held inventory is released every day at midnight so Wednesday is nothing special. Agencies who use Sabre, Worldspan, Galileo and/or Amadeus [the major GDS's -- the global computer networks used for booking tickets] can hold DOMESTIC inventory (sold status SS) without ticketing up to 24 hours during the day, and the carriers at their choosing come in the evening at Midnight and release un-ticketed inventory. The hold for international inventory is normally longer than 24 hours but is at the discretion of the airlines. Some airline websites have a hold feature, but it acts the same way as an agency: the inventory is lost at midnight if not ticketed, and the itinerary is repriced at the current inventory for that flight at time of purchase. For the most part all airline sites use the same policy.”
- Most fares that are put on hold aren’t that cheap to begin with.
“It’s not the low fare inventory that opens up at midnight. Low fare inventory is almost always ticketed immediately. Un-ticketed inventory is normally high priced business inventory held by a corporate agency for business travelers who are on the fence about going, or by government workers who have a special ‘hold until travel’ feature for negotiated routes.”
- Midnight isn’t necessarily the best time for new fares, anyway.
“New fares (lower or higher) are distributed at 10:00am, 12:30pm, and 8pm EST and loaded about 2-6 hours later in the GDS and airline sites. Seat inventory is controlled by automated revenue management systems, which continuously monitor current sales and consult historical models to decide on whether to release the lowest price seat inventory. The 8pm domestic ATPCO [Airline Tariff Publishing Company -- the clearinghouse (owned by the airlines) for raw air fare/rule distribution] fare feed (5pm weekends) is loaded into the GDS and airline sites between 12:15am and 1:30am, which has the changed fares. But there is no correlation to getting a good deal, just because some inventory might be freed up at midnight. It is just as likely to free up at 2pm when the yield management system decides sales are soft in a particular inventory price bucket for a particular flight.”
- SHOCKER: Some agencies will try to get a better price than the fare they sold you. You just may not find out.
“Large volume non-online agencies do have a practice of ticketing later at night and trying to re-price all un-ticketed items to see if any fares or inventory have changed on a particular flight (sometimes they pocket the difference, sometimes the customer gets the benefit).”
- This is not news.
“There is nothing special about this process. It has been this way for years.”
There you have it. Myth busted. It’s Wednesday night as I type, and though midnight is approaching, I’m not banking on any airfare deals tonight. Neither should you.
Big thanks to Rick Seaney for the insights.
UPDATE: SmarterTravel.com took on the same question today, and they suggest that Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday (especially Tuesday) are more likely to have lower fares. I don’t buy it. The explanation is purely anecdotal; I’ll go with the boys at FareCompare who track airfares obsessively, who say the low fares can come on any day.
Related:
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- Where to find cheap last-minute or emergency tickets
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March 6th, 2007 at 10:32 am
[...] A few nights ago, Rick Seaney, CEO of FareCompare.com, helped me bust the myth that Wednesday at midnight was the ideal time to buy plane tickets. Which led the Consumerist to throw down the gauntlet, demanding to know when the best time for ticket purchases actually IS. [...]
March 23rd, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Wed at midnight might not be the best time to buy cheap flights, but Tuesday is better than buying on Friday, Sat or Sunday.
2 weeks ago I was looking to book a flight from tampa to Las Vegas and the amount was $233. I was waiting on info from a friend but kept an eye on the flight prices Tues, Wed and Thurs and it remained at $233. On Friday I received the info I needed and went to book my ticket the new price was $533 (with numerous flight options available). All weekend they remained $533+. On Monday they were down to $488 and Tuesday they were to $433.
I’ve watched for 2 weeks now and witnessed the same increase on the weekend and decrease on Mon and Tues. I’m hoping they will go back down under $400, but gas prices have caused the recent increase so I can only hope it goes down in price.
August 25th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
[...] in 2006, Upgrade: Travel Better pooh-poohed the Wednesday-at-midnight methodology for finding fares, saying “It’s pure, unadulterated [...]
March 24th, 2009 at 8:48 pm
I dont care what anyone says 30 days or more from the time you leave is the best time to get your airfare cheap.
April 16th, 2009 at 9:38 am
[...] this is when airlines get rid of the reserved but unbooked lower fare reservations. Now, there are opinions on how legit this argument is. However, I recently booked a flight to Long Beach, CA and paid $329 on JetBlue when I purchased it [...]
July 1st, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Twitter Comment
Investigando maneras de aquirir tarifas bajas de avión en línea: [link to post] – son sistemas bastante complejos.
– Posted using Chat Catcher
July 29th, 2009 at 11:12 am
Completely wrong on your part. I’ve been waiting to book tickets to Memphis from NY for a late Oct wedding. I’ve checked prices for the flight every day for a week. Guess which day had the cheapest fare? Wednesday. Myth unbusted.
Makes sense since most people plan trips and are more likely to book on weekends, so fares are higher because travel related companies aren’t dumb.
August 4th, 2009 at 8:24 pm
Hey Jon K, I would like to know if you purchased it on a Tuesday night which then midnight will make Wednesday or did you purchased on Wednesday night at midnight which is actually Thursday. Please advise.
August 20th, 2009 at 1:50 am
A week long observation is hardly proof that fares are always lower on Wednesdays. I can see what they guy at FareCompare is saying, though. If you average the data out over a long period of time- say, a year- you would probably have a roughly equal chance of getting a low fare on a Wednesday night as you would on Saturday night. For example, I check fares for a flight from Indy to Albany this morning and they were 214- tonight, Wednesday, they went up to 277. So, I say bollocks- take the train.
December 15th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
Our company works in all capacities with sports teams and we are trying to nail down when and thru whom it would be best to buy tickets from Texas to Fairbanks, Alaska in mid February 2010.
Any help is appreciated.
February 3rd, 2010 at 2:30 am
I am living proof of this Wednesday Midnight airfare deal myth. I had two one way red-eye tickets on an empty plane that I was ready to purchase for $155 each on Tuesday at 6pm (the same price for a few days) but I decided to wait a few hours until Midnight on the advice of many online articles to see if the price dropped between Midnight to 1am on Wednesday (east coast time). Before Midnight even struck, the ticket nearly quadrupled in price to $565 each… for a one-way empty red-eye? This myth of price changing at the magic Midnight hour in the middle of the price war week is an unfortunate joke. If only I’d read this article first.