So how accurate is Farecast?

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Several Upgrade: Travel Better readers took Farecast.com for a spin last week. The Boston Globe did, too, and they kept track of how accurate the predictions ended up being. Their answer: so-so, but still with lots of potential.

Twice the website accurately predicted price increases, but twice it missed the boat, once predicting an increase when the fare dropped and once predicting a decrease when the fare went up. On the fifth route, from Boston to Philadelphia, Farecast was fairly close. The website predicted the lowest fare would drop $6 over the next seven days, but it stayed the same.

2 wins, 2 losses, 1 tie.

That’s better than my results. I checked fares for two routes last week: Boston-Chicago (Farecast predicted decline, but the price went up) and Seattle-Chicago (Farecast predicted increase, but the price stayed flat). 0 for 2 for me. Not a huge sample size, admittedly.

Farecast’s excuse? Their software estimates the AVERAGE price over the course of the WHOLE WEEK ahead, not the price exactly one week ahead. Hmm, I see… Well, then they should re-label their “tip” from “wait” to “wait, and check airfares obsessively for the next 7 days.”

P.S. More referrals to the private beta of farecast are available.

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One Response to “So how accurate is Farecast?”

  1. Upgrade: Travel Better » Blog Archive » Fare guarantee? Farecast lets you insure its fare predictions says:

    […] Ironically, this comes on the heels of the Seattle Times’ review of Farecast today. The newspaper found that the service was accurate in predicting the direction of fares in 61% of the searches queried. That’s below the firm’s target of 75%, but above my earlier (limited) assessment of around 50% accuracy. […]

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