First time here? Check out the site's "greatest hits" or read a random post from the archives. Feel free to ask a question, and consider subscribing to the latest posts via RSS or e-mail. Thanks for visiting!

Several Upgrade: Travel Better readers took Farecast.com for a spin last week. The Boston Globe did, too, and they kept track of how accurate the predictions ended up being. Their answer: so-so, but still with lots of potential.

Twice the website accurately predicted price increases, but twice it missed the boat, once predicting an increase when the fare dropped and once predicting a decrease when the fare went up. On the fifth route, from Boston to Philadelphia, Farecast was fairly close. The website predicted the lowest fare would drop $6 over the next seven days, but it stayed the same.

2 wins, 2 losses, 1 tie.

That’s better than my results. I checked fares for two routes last week: Boston-Chicago (Farecast predicted decline, but the price went up) and Seattle-Chicago (Farecast predicted increase, but the price stayed flat). 0 for 2 for me. Not a huge sample size, admittedly.

Farecast’s excuse? Their software estimates the AVERAGE price over the course of the WHOLE WEEK ahead, not the price exactly one week ahead. Hmm, I see… Well, then they should re-label their “tip” from “wait” to “wait, and check airfares obsessively for the next 7 days.”

P.S. More referrals to the private beta of farecast are available.

tags: travel | air travel | farecast