Several Upgrade: Travel Better readers took Farecast.com for a spin last week. The Boston Globe did, too, and they kept track of how accurate the predictions ended up being. Their answer: so-so, but still with lots of potential.
Twice the website accurately predicted price increases, but twice it missed the boat, once predicting an increase when the fare dropped and once predicting a decrease when the fare went up. On the fifth route, from Boston to Philadelphia, Farecast was fairly close. The website predicted the lowest fare would drop $6 over the next seven days, but it stayed the same.
2 wins, 2 losses, 1 tie.
That’s better than my results. I checked fares for two routes last week: Boston-Chicago (Farecast predicted decline, but the price went up) and Seattle-Chicago (Farecast predicted increase, but the price stayed flat). 0 for 2 for me. Not a huge sample size, admittedly.
Farecast’s excuse? Their software estimates the AVERAGE price over the course of the WHOLE WEEK ahead, not the price exactly one week ahead. Hmm, I see… Well, then they should re-label their “tip” from “wait” to “wait, and check airfares obsessively for the next 7 days.”
P.S. More referrals to the private beta of farecast are available.
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March 6th, 2007 at 10:47 am
[...] Ironically, this comes on the heels of the Seattle Times’ review of Farecast today. The newspaper found that the service was accurate in predicting the direction of fares in 61% of the searches queried. That’s below the firm’s target of 75%, but above my earlier (limited) assessment of around 50% accuracy. [...]
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:49 am
[...] posts via RSS or e-mail. Thanks for visiting!Airfare prediction site Farecast, fresh from weeks of generally good PR, is now live for public beta testing. No special logins required any longer. However, the site [...]
October 25th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
[...] – Farecast beta goes public, just in time for a reader review – So how accurate is Farecast? – The traveler’s crystal ball – Market timing: More advice on when to buy cheap plane tickets [...]